Follow me on Twitter: @kk_OEG
When Iran launched some 300 drones and multiple ballistic missiles at Israel, my immediate thought was, the line that should not have been crossed has been breached. For decades Iran has managed to get away with its terrorist activities primarily because it played a smart game of funding and using proxies to carry out its directives. Nations found it hard to hit back since whilst everyone knew who was behind many of these terrorist attacks, attacking Iran or making it accountable was proving to be challenging. Hence the sanctions that were meant to cripple Iran and bring it to its knees. The only problem, it was western nations who were first in line to break those very same sanctions and continue to make billions with various trades with Iran.
The message Iran received was very simple, the west was all mouth. The USA and its allies talk big, but when it came to tangible action, they just did not have the spine. It was very different when the west attacked Iraq. After all, Iraq was led by a below average lunatic whose only modus operandi of control was the use of death and fear on his own people. Iran however is an altogether a different proposition. Behind the mullahs and the ayatollahs are thousands of very intelligent Iranians. Their strategic thinking and planning have allowed it to get away with murder, literally.
It is therefore alarming to see that they breached that line and orchestrated a direct attack on Israel from Iranian soil. Their assessment I guess must be that the west will restrain Israel from any escalation. Banking on the fear of the whole of the middle east going up in flames. Many western leaders have already come out attempting to caution Israel from taking any precipitous action against Iran.
So what should Israel do? If they don’t give a fitting reply directly to Iran, then they give a green light to every terrorist nation in the middle east to have a pop at it. It also confirms to the terror nations that when it comes to it, the west has no stomach for escalation fearing a middle eastern ‘World War III’.
My view has always been consistent, if you appease today, then ready yourself to be abused and attacked tomorrow. It is that simple. History shows us that appeasement has never worked with any aggressor, it may delay the inevitable, but the end game will have to be played out at some stage.
I am reminded of the Pakistani terrorist state and its 2008 attack on India in Mumbai. At that time the USA and allies warned India not to retaliate. The then PM Manmohan Singh of Congress Party gave in and did nothing sending a clear message to Pakistan that India was open to all forms of attacks. And guess what, Pakistani proxies continued their attacks. It was only when PM Modi came to power and gave a fitting response for Uri and Pulwama, that Pakistan today thinks very hard before attempting to play its games. Pakistan knows if they dare to conduct a major terrorist attack on Indian soil, it means their destruction.
Israel must remain true to itself. There are nations in the middle east that wish peace and an end to terror and conflict. Those who support Iran are very few, and most are incompetent subordinates.
Israel should take its time before it teaches Iran a lesson. Iran has already threathened to destroy all western outposts in the middle east, as well as many oil refineries. Which means the west needs to make sure they are on the same page as Israel, and in a position to protect those assets. The difficulty will be in destroying Irans infrastructure to such an extent that its military have little capacity to attack anyone, and at the same time making sure the Iranian public are not harmed. An impossible equation in any war situation. However, there is scope that if the Islamists top tier and their revolutionary guards are uprooted, there may well be an opportunity for ordinary Iranians to rise up and bring about a more democratic, peaceful and open society.
Whether it is now, or in the near future, I am certain that the end for Islamists in Iran is nigh. Iran will fall, and one hopes it will rise again to become a better lead nation in the middle east. I did say, ‘hope’. Nothing is certain in the middle east!
Kapil's Khichadi 